Sanctions enforcement and trade policy shifts reshape global shipping flows

Oil prices lifted by rising regional tensions
Geopolitical developments remained central during February. Brent crude was lifted to a six-month high near USD 72 per barrel as tensions involving Iran intensified and the United States signalled a compressed timeline for nuclear negotiations. The move reinforced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets.

Sanctions continue to fragment crude flows
Sanctions enforcement remained a key theme, with additional vessels linked to Russian and Iranian trade targeted by Western authorities. Floating storage of sanctioned crude has risen materially since early 2024, highlighting ongoing challenges in placing restricted barrels and contributing to tighter availability in the compliant tanker market.

India’s sourcing patterns continue to shift
India is set to import its highest volume of Saudi crude in more than six years, reflecting continued pressure to moderate purchases of Russian oil. The shift is expected to narrow Russia’s share of the Indian market and further reshape long-haul crude trade flows toward alternative buyers.

US tariff developments add broader shipping uncertainty
Trade policy also returned to focus after the US Supreme Court blocked the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, prompting the White House to pursue alternative measures, including a temporary tariff of up to 15 percent. While the direct impact varies by segment, renewed tariff uncertainty has the potential to influence global trade patterns more broadly, particularly across container and vehicle shipping markets. For shipping overall, the development adds another layer of policy-driven volatility to an already fluid geopolitical backdrop.