Global oil stocks have fallen at a pace without historical precedent, creating a sustained restocking requirement that will support tanker demand well beyond the reopening date

The largest inventory depletion in modern energy history
The IEA estimates that global observed oil inventories have declined by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day since the start of the conflict, with a drawdown of 143 million barrels in May alone. OECD government inventories fell to their lowest level since December 1990 as the pace of emergency stock releases accelerated. The IEA’s coordinated release of 400 million barrels, the largest in its history, was bringing 2.5 million barrels per day of additional oil to market by May. Even so, the buffers continue to erode: global supply fell to 94.5 million barrels per day in May, down 13.6 million barrels per day from pre-conflict levels, while demand declined by approximately 5 million barrels per day year-on-year in the second quarter. China slashed crude imports by 40%, or nearly 4.6 million barrels per day, between February and May, while Japan’s imports fell by a similar proportion. The IEA now forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 in their June report, a downgrade of 700,000 barrels per day from the May report.

Restocking will sustain freight demand across tanker and gas segments
For shipping markets, the significance of this inventory depletion lies in what follows the reopening. The IEA’s first look at 2027 balances shows global oil supply surging by approximately 8 million barrels per day to 110 million barrels per day, creating a significant overhang that will provide an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories and build new strategic reserves. This restocking cycle will generate incremental seaborne demand on top of normalised trade flows, particularly if buyers continue sourcing from longer-haul Atlantic suppliers while Gulf production ramps back up. In the VLGC market, depleted LPG and naphtha stocks across Asian petrochemical hubs represent a concentrated restocking requirement. The freight implications therefore extend well beyond the reopening date itself: the rebuilding of commercial and strategic buffers is expected to support seaborne demand across crude, products, and gas for a sustained period through the second half of 2026 and into 2027.