VLCC highs, OPEC+ production gains, and low fleet growth set the stage for continued strength
September marked one of the strongest months in the recent tanker cycle. VLCC earnings on the Middle East-China route climbed to their highest level since late 2022, equivalent to more than USD 6.6 million per average voyage, roughly 150 percent higher than at the start of the year. This surge reflects the broader strength across crude carriers, with Suezmax and Aframax segments also benefitting as higher demand spills over into shorter-haul and more flexible classes.
OPEC+ adds barrels, Russia redirects flows
Momentum has been reinforced by steady supply growth. OPEC+ has increased production for six consecutive months, adding more than 2 million bpd since April. Russia has also redirected crude through alternate ports after drone strikes cut refining capacity, while smaller additions such as Iraq’s restart of Kurdish exports via Turkey have further boosted seaborne flows. These shifts are extending voyage distances and supporting tanker utilization.
Demand growth meets tight fleet supply
At the same time, global oil demand is set to continue growing. Both the IEA and OPEC project rising consumption in 2025 and 2026, led by emerging markets such as India. With effective fleet supply constrained by sanctions and a historically low orderbook, the sector is well positioned to absorb this additional demand. The combination of stronger oil flows, longer voyages, and limited fleet growth provides a constructive backdrop as the market heads into the winter season.
New output in Guyana boosts Suezmax demand
ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project has added 250,000 bpd of new production, recently lifting Guyana’s offshore capacity above 900,000 bpd. Seasonal restrictions prevent VLCC loadings until January, meaning most of these barrels will move on Suezmaxes, providing a direct boost to demand through the fourth quarter. Combined with OPEC+ supply growth, rising Asian demand, and limited fleet expansion, this reinforces a positive outlook for crude tankers well into 2026.
