Record VLGC rates and Panama Canal congestion add new pressure points alongside a still-disrupted Strait

Tankers: VLCC earnings slip below USD 100,000/day for the first time in four months
The crude tanker market continued to normalize this week, with VLCC spot earnings briefly falling below USD 100,000 per day for the first time since January and the broader tanker earnings composite down 12% week-on-week to approximately USD 61,000 per day. The decline reflects weaker cargo enquiry rather than any improvement in the Hormuz situation, particularly in the Middle East Gulf where most route assessments remain largely theoretical given minimal fixing activity.

US crude exports reached 5.6 million barrels per day in the week ending 15 May, the second-highest level on record, partially offsetting the loss of Gulf barrels but not enough to halt the broader rate decline. Chinese state-owned refinery utilisation has meanwhile fallen to 67% as refiners accelerate maintenance amid disrupted crude supply and weak domestic demand. Continued reports of Middle East peace talks have helped stabilise sentiment, but without a recovery in cargo volumes or progress towards reopening Hormuz, earnings appear likely to continue drifting lower from still-elevated levels.

LPG/VLGC: Spot rates surge to all-time highs as Atlantic tonnage availability evaporates
VLGC spot earnings rose a further 6% this week to approximately USD 186,000 per day, surpassing the previous record set in September 2023 by 17%, as an acute shortage of available Atlantic tonnage pushed rates towards commercially challenging levels for charterers. The USG position list has narrowed to just five firm vessels for June loading, four of which are clustered in the final days of the month.

Panama Canal congestion has compounded the tightness, with waiting times for deep-sea cargo vessels running roughly 75% above the 2025 average and forcing additional Cape of Good Hope routing that absorbs further fleet capacity. Middle East Gulf activity remains minimal due to the ongoing Hormuz disruption.

PCTC: Rates step up to USD 55,000/day as fleet tightness reasserts pricing power
The car carrier market firmed this week, with six-to-twelve-month timecharter rates for modern 6,500 CEU tonnage rising to USD 55,000 per day from around USD 50,000 per day in recent months. The increase reflects continued tightness in near-term vessel availability against a backdrop of steady automotive export demand, particularly from Asian manufacturers. The orderbook stands at 137 vessels, representing approximately 18% of the current fleet, with most deliveries weighted towards 2027 and 2028, leaving meaningful supply relief more than a year away. The PCTC segment also remains relatively insulated from Hormuz-related disruption given the Middle East’s role primarily as a vehicle import market. The greater risk remains a broader macroeconomic slowdown that weakens consumer demand in Europe and North America as elevated energy costs and inflation continue to pressure household spending.

Geopolitics: Hormuz transits remain severely depressed as Panama Canal congestion creates a second chokepoint constraint
Hormuz transits remained around 10 vessels per day last week, still more than 90% below pre-conflict levels, with no clear signs of reopening. Brent crude has stabilised around USD 100 per barrel as markets adapt through alternative supply routes.

Chinese refinery cuts and weaker Asian product exports continue to weigh on cargo volumes, while Panama Canal congestion is pushing more VLGCs around the Cape of Good Hope, tightening fleet supply.

The near-term outlook remains balanced. A reopening of Hormuz would likely pressure tanker and gas carrier rates in short-term, but will likely impact our core segments positively in medium and long term.