A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran was reached on June 24, providing short-term normalization to shipping markets. War-risk premiums on voyages through the Persian Gulf fell slightly, and crude tanker rates dipped 10-20 % to pre-conflict levels. However, underlying volatility remains elevated.

Tracking interference poses operational risks
Notably, Iran’s parliament passed a symbolic vote on June 22 approving closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a key chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil. However, market experts believe a potential closure remains unlikely due to Iran’s economic dependency on crude exports through the Strait. Current operational issues in the region stem from GPS spoofing, with over 900 vessels having reported AIS interference in the area. A tanker collision in the Gulf of Oman further underscored regional operational risk.

Despite this, shipping flows remain uninterrupted, and major shipping companies resumed port calls in Haifa on June 27. Analysts caution that any flare-up could quickly reverse the market’s stabilization.