A crisis without modern precedent forces an emergency policy response
More than three weeks of conflict in the Middle East have produced what the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol describes as a disruption on par with the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the 2022 European gas crisis. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed, severing the principal seaborne artery for Gulf crude. In response, the IEA is in active discussions with member governments across Asia and Europe on coordinated stockpile releases. Birol was explicit, however, that emergency reserves offer temporary relief and that physical reopening of the strait is the only path back to stable supply conditions. With more than 40 energy assets across nine countries reportedly damaged, the timeline for normalisation remains uncertain, and a prolonged period of disruptions is expected, potentially benefitting the tanker and gas market.

Disruption to Gulf flows reshapes the crude tanker operating environment
For crude tanker markets, the closure removes a substantial share of VLCC demand from the market’s most active trade lane. Asian importers bear the greatest exposure, given their heavy reliance on Gulf supply, and China’s mid-March ban on refined fuel exports adds further complexity to the regional supply picture. Stockpile releases, if activated, could introduce incremental Atlantic and US Gulf volumes into the seaborne market, offering partial support to non-Gulf trades. However, the volumes available are unlikely to offset sustained Hormuz disruption at scale. For tanker investors, the environment is defined less by rate momentum and more by structural uncertainty, with route economics and vessel deployment subject to rapid revision as the conflict develops.