The VLCCs now shuttling crude out of the Gulf have the carrying capacity of about 200 Suezmaxes, and part of the cargo they no longer carry is moving to smaller tankers.

Shuttling removes VLCC capacity and adds a step to each voyage
Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in February, most private shipowners have avoided the Strait. Gulf national oil companies have therefore bought or chartered tankers to shuttle crude to the Gulf of Oman and the west coast of India, where it is transferred to other tankers for the onward voyage. According to BRS, about 100 VLCCs now work only as shuttles. Based on Clarksons’ average ship sizes, these VLCCs can carry as much as about 200 Suezmaxes, or more than a quarter of the Suezmax fleet. Each shuttled cargo also needs two ships instead of one, and transfers in the Gulf of Oman can cause delays that last weeks.

Smaller tankers take over long-haul cargoes
With fewer VLCCs available for normal trade, charterers move more cargoes to smaller tankers, including Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, a shift BRS links to shuttling. This is relevant in the Atlantic, where Clarksons expects US and Brazilian crude exports to grow by 11% and 10% in 2026, while Saudi exports fall by 11%. Last week, BRS reported that Suezmaxes and other smaller tankers remained more competitive than VLCCs for eastbound cargoes from West Africa and the US Gulf. Because only a small number of Suezmaxes and Aframaxes work as shuttles, these segments gain from the VLCC shortage without being heavily used for shuttling themselves.

How long the effect can last
The link also works in reverse: if VLCC rates fall far enough, VLCCs will compete for these cargoes again. However, BRS expects shuttling to continue over the medium term, even if a peace agreement is reached, although a deal would reduce the number of ships needed. As long as around 100 VLCCs remain in shuttling, Suezmax and Aframax demand should continue to benefit.

Sources: BRS Shipbrokers & Clarksons Research