Sanctions dynamics continue to reshape global crude trade flows
Tanker: Crude segment continues to perform at elevated levels
Crude tanker markets held broadly steady at elevated levels this week, with weighted average earnings north of USD 100,000 per day. Aframax markets showed relative strength, particularly in the Mediterranean and US markets, while Suezmax performance remained steady week-on-week. In contrast, the product tanker segment corrected following last week’s gains, with clean MR earnings falling amid slowing cargo enquiry and a lengthening position list.
LPG / VLGC: International Energy week cools spot market as segment sentiment remains strong
The VLGC market saw a quieter week, with limited fixing as focus shifted to International Energy Week. Eastern rates softened modestly, while elevated Panama Canal costs in the West continued to favour Cape routings. Medium-term fundamentals remain supportive, with tonne mile demand still outpacing fleet growth and Indian import demand holding firm. Newbuild ordering is increasingly centred on ammonia capable VLACs, signalling a structural shift in the fleet.
PCTC: Strong vehicle export demand from Asia continues to support segment
The car carrier segment continues to exhibit strong performance largely stemming from strong vehicle export demand from Asia combined with continued tight vessel availability. Analysts in 2025 were speculative of the segment due to the record fleet growth. However, Wallenius Wilhelmsen notes that this growth has already been fully absorbed by Chinese export volumes, keeping utilization high and limiting available capacity across the market. Nissan is planning to accelerate Chinese EVs to emerging markets in the Middle East and Southern hemisphere, shaping trade flows.
Geopolitical: Venezuelan crude re-enters global trade flows while Russia & Iran face intensified sanctions
Sanctions continue to be the focus in the geopolitical landscape this week as both the US and Europe impose and plan new sanctions. The United States further imposed sanctions on Iranian tankers and advised US vessels to avoid Iranian waters. The European Commission proposed to add 43 additional vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet to its sanctions list, in addition to European tankers, primarily from Greece, Cyprus and Malta, that support Russian seaborne crude exports. Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, has restored output to near pre-blockade levels following US sanctions imposed in 2019. Venezuelan crude has re-entered global trade flows, with Indian refineries placing orders for Venezuelan crude and China purchasing Venezuelan crude from the US government.
Sources: Clarksons, MB Shipbrokers, Reuters & TradeWinds