Growing discussion around a possible Ukraine peace deal carries important implications for crude shipping. For Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, which have been among the biggest beneficiaries of disrupted post-2022 trade flows, any shift toward shorter routes could reduce volatility. While this may soften tonne-mile demand in the near term, the sector stands to benefit from greater predictability and stability.

Fleet dynamics and supply balance could be set to improve
Older vessels that have relied on sanctioned trades could face pressure, potentially accelerating scrapping and tightening supply over time. This would support asset values and improve the balance between fleet size and demand. A more stable geopolitical environment would also reduce risk premiums and strengthen longer-term investment confidence in the sector.