Crude tanker markets strengthened further during this past week, led by a sharp rally in VLCC earnings. Middle East to China spot rates climbed to their highest levels since 2020 and nearly three times higher than at the start of the year, to about USD 151k/day, supported by stronger global crude output and tightening prompt vessel availability. Market sentiment has also firmed amid rising US-Iran tensions and the potential for disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global crude flows. The uplift is visible across the basin, with US Gulf to China earnings at their strongest since late 2022, while Suezmax rates have also moved higher on firmer Atlantic activity and improving cargo enquiry.

Looking ahead, strength in the VLCC segment is increasingly spilling over into the Suezmax and Aframax markets as charterers seek alternative tonnage and owners gain negotiating leverage. Recent fleet acquisitions by Sinokor have tightened the pool of available modern VLCCs, reinforcing the broader crude tanker rally and increasing the sector’s sensitivity to geopolitical flare ups. For owners, the current setup supports a firm near-term earnings outlook across crude segments, though volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market continues to price in geopolitical risk and potential trade flow disruptions.