Ceasefire extension agreed in principle, but Strait of Hormuz remains shut pending formal approval

Washington and Tel Aviv want different things from this war
The central challenge for a Hormuz deal is no longer limited to US-Iran talks alone. Israel’s continued escalation in Lebanon is creating recurring friction in the wider negotiation framework, giving Iran grounds to pause or reassess engagement. At the same time, the parties remain divided on scope, with Iran insisting that any settlement must also address Lebanon. This dynamic was evident again this week, with reports of Iran stepping back from ceasefire discussions, while US officials denied that talks had fully broken down.

For shipping markets, uncertainty is the base case for now
Until broader regional tensions ease, the ceasefire is likely to remain fragile and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Brent rose about 1% to USD 97 per barrel on renewed escalation, underscoring that the geopolitical risk premium remains active. Iran has also signalled it could tighten restrictions in the Strait further. For shipping, this backdrop continues to support elevated freight earnings, but visibility on any durable agreement remains limited and the path to de-escalation appears more complex than earlier in the week.