New vessels were expected to ease capacity shortages in 2026, but rising Chinese exports have kept the market tight, supporting charter rates and longer customer commitments.

Chinese overseas expansion reshapes demand

Chinese manufacturers’ expansion into overseas markets continues to drive demand for car carriers. Passenger-car exports rose 77.5% year on year in August, with BYD and Geely reaching new export records. Weak domestic sales are encouraging manufacturers to seek growth abroad, while competitively priced models help them gain customers across Europe and emerging markets. For shipping, this broadening export base supports demand across several trade routes.

The effect is becoming increasingly apparent in vessel availability. At its September market update, Wallenius Wilhelmsen said Chinese export growth was outpacing fleet expansion despite substantial new deliveries. Some vehicles are being transported in containers and bulk carriers because dedicated car carrier capacity remains insufficient. The company also reported higher freight rates and longer customer contracts as manufacturers sought to secure shipping capacity.

Firm charter rates support a positive outlook

Charter rates for a 6,500-car-capacity carrier held at approximately USD 85,000 per day in September, following a recovery from USD 70,000 in June and USD 80,000 in July. This suggests that new deliveries have so far been absorbed without the sustained decline in rates many had anticipated.

Further fleet growth will test that balance through 2027. Trade restrictions and manufacturers’ investment in overseas factories could also change export patterns over time. Nevertheless, September’s firm rates and operators’ reports of limited capacity support our positive near-term outlook. For owners, continued demand for longer contracts offers an opportunity to secure earnings beyond the current market.

Sources: Clarksons Research, Reuters, Wallenius Wilhelmsen