Pipelines move Gulf crude to new loading ports rather than to buyers, and refilling depleted oil stocks should absorb the extra barrels. Exports exceed pre-war levels as pipelines change where tankers load Middle East oil exports averaged more than 24 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending 18 October, above the pre-war 23.3 million, according to Kpler, with pipelines that bypass Hormuz carrying a growing share. These pipelines do not deliver crude to buyers; they carry it to

Historical trends suggest further upside in suezmax/crude tanker values, while elevated period rates support asset prices and future earnings. The recent surge in tanker earnings has pushed crude tanker asset values to new highs. However, historical data suggests further upside may remain, as asset prices often follow improvements in earnings with a lag. Since 2020, there have been ten instances where one-year Suezmax timecharter rates increased by more than 10% within a month. In nine cases, vessel values were higher

Hormuz attacks and tight vessel supply keep charterers focused on securing ships for longer. Tankers: Suezmax and Aframax values rise further as spot earnings ease Average tanker earnings eased 4% week-on-week to about $295,000/day, just below recent records. Gulf exports and ship-to-ship transfer delays continue to absorb vessel capacity. One-year timecharter rates stand at about $180,000/day for Suezmaxes and $100,000/day for Aframaxes, against 2025 averages below $40,000/day. Five-year-old values reached about $145 million for Suezmaxes and $95 million for Aframaxes,

The release aims to ease fuel shortages, with future restocking potentially creating fresh demand for tanker shipments. On 2 October, the G7 announced plans to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with substantial diesel supplies made available in the first 20 days. The aim is to ease shortages and bring down fuel prices. Members also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions, reducing the risk of a US diesel export ban. For

More crude is reaching buyers, but shuttle voyages, offshore transfers and cargo splitting keep vessel capacity under pressure. Exports have recovered, but shipping remains constrained Gulf crude and product exports, excluding Iran, reached approximately 16.5 million barrels/day in September, matching pre-war levels and recovering from around 6 million in March, according to Kpler. However, the recovery includes bypass routes, with flows through Hormuz itself still below normal. Tanker earnings remain exceptional. In the week ending 2 October, VLCC earnings averaged

Limited vessel availability lifts tanker and VLGC earnings, while Chinese vehicle exports support car carrier demand. Tankers: Suezmax earnings jump 72% as charterers turn to smaller ships Suezmax earnings rose 72% last week to approximately USD 628,000/day, while Aframax earnings increased 8% to around USD 272,000/day. Charterers continue to split larger crude cargoes onto smaller vessels, tightening availability across both segments. Strong demand in the Atlantic helped push Suezmax rates to new records, with little sign of immediate relief for

Record tanker rates are emerging despite falling oil trade, suggesting that today’s market is being driven by disrupted supply chains rather than demand growth. Today’s strength is coming from inefficiency, not rising oil demand It is tempting to compare today’s tanker market with the last major supercycle in 2007-08, particularly as spot rates move to levels not seen in years. But the forces behind the two markets are very different. BRS Shipbrokers points out that the previous boom was largely