Broadening cargo base and decelerating fleet supply supports outlook for car carriers

High & Heavy adds depth to demand picture
The PCTC market’s demand base is broadening beyond passenger vehicles. Deep-sea shipments of construction equipment from Asia grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by China at 39%, as infrastructure investment across emerging markets continues to fuel appetite for Asian-built machinery. Global High & Heavy sales (mining equipment and cranes) are forecast to rise 2-4% annually in both 2026 and 2027, adding a resilient secondary demand layer alongside record Chinese EV and hybrid export volumes, which surged 87% year-on-year in Q1. The combination of the two cargo types strengthens fleet utilisation across a wider range of routes and discharge regions than either trend delivers in isolation.

Supply trajectory turns supportive
On the supply side, net fleet growth in the PCTC segment is set to decelerate sharply in the coming years, projected to turn negative in both 2029 and 2030 as recycling activity accelerates against a backdrop of limited new ordering. This contrasts with the elevated net growth of 8% seen in 2024 and 13% in 2025, and points to a period of genuine tightness ahead.

Rates reflect the imbalance
One-year timecharter rates for PCTC 6,500 CEU currently stand at USD 55,000 per day, nearly three times the 2010-2020 average of USD 19,400 per day. With cargo demand broadening and fleet supply decelerating, the structural floor for rates appears well-supported through the medium term.