Chinese yards must nearly double annual output by 2028, and financiers are urging caution on new orders.

Chinese yards must nearly double output to meet a record delivery schedule
The global newbuilding orderbook reached a record 226 million cgt at the end of October, above the previous peak in September 2008, according to Clarksons Research. Chinese yards hold 68% of this orderbook. According to BIMCO, they also won 74% of new contracting in the 12 months to September. At the Marine Money China Ship Finance Forum in Shanghai, executives said Chinese leasing houses support this growth with high loan-to-value ratios and flexible structures. The constraint is now delivery capacity: Chinese yards are scheduled to deliver a record 44.0 million cgt in 2028, nearly double the 22.7 million cgt delivered in 2025. BIMCO warns that this new capacity could become underused if contracting slows.

Sources: BIMCO, Clarksons Research, TradeWinds