Unprecedented inventory depletion caused by US-Iran conflict Two months into the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have been drawn down at a pace without historical precedent, with Morgan Stanley estimating a decline of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day between early March and late April, surpassing any previous peak quarterly drawdown in IEA data. Crude accounts for close to 60% of the decline, with refined products and LPG making up the remainder. Outside China, Asia-Pacific

Washington and Beijing endorse Hormuz access, but no reopening mechanism has emerged President Trump’s state visit to Beijing on 15 May produced the clearest signal yet that both Washington and Beijing want the Strait of Hormuz reopened. The White House confirmed that Trump and Xi agreed the strait “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” with Xi offering to help broker a resolution and confirming that China would not supply military equipment to Iran. Chinese Foreign Minister

LPG earnings ‘set new record highs’ states Clarksons, while tanker rates ease from recent peaks but remain historically strong Tankers: Rates normalise from exceptional highs but remain strongThe recent moderation should be viewed less as market weakness and more as a gradual normalisation after an extended period of conflict-driven volatility and extreme earnings. VLCC rates remained particularly strong, supported by altered trade flows and continued uncertainty around Gulf exports, while Suezmax and Aframax markets saw more uneven activity across key

Record US exports, Panama Canal congestion and vanishing Middle East flows combine to create the tightest VLGC market on record From firm footing to record territoryThe VLGC market entered 2026 on solid ground, with spot earnings averaging USD 73,600 per day in January and February, approximately 50% above the 2025 average. The onset of the Middle East conflict caused a brief dislocation, with earnings initially falling 30% to around USD 48,000 per day as Persian Gulf activity halted and bunker

Broadening cargo base and decelerating fleet supply supports outlook for car carriers High & Heavy adds depth to demand pictureThe PCTC market’s demand base is broadening beyond passenger vehicles. Deep-sea shipments of construction equipment from Asia grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by China at 39%, as infrastructure investment across emerging markets continues to fuel appetite for Asian-built machinery. Global High & Heavy sales (mining equipment and cranes) are forecast to rise 2-4% annually in both 2026 and 2027,

VLGC earnings hit all-time highs, tanker rates ease on peace hopes and PCTC demand broadens beyond passenger vehicles Tankers: Rates ease as ceasefire hopes briefly emerge but disruption remainsThe crude tanker market experienced a volatile week as US-Iran ceasefire talks briefly resumed before collapsing, prompting ships to move toward Dubai and away from Hormuz. Brent fell 9% week-on-week to USD 100.3 per barrel on ceasefire optimism, applying downward pressure on freight sentiment. Spot rates reflected the uncertainty, with Suezmax spot

European inflation climbs as energy shock reshapes shipping dynamics Euro area annual inflation rose to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March, driven primarily by elevated energy prices stemming from the ongoing Hormuz closure. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since December 2022, while GDP growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, prompting analysts to warn of mounting stagflationary pressure. The ECB acknowledged the conflict as a key inflationary driver while signalling it remains well positioned

Global shipping decarbonisation remains politically divided, but regional emissions regulation continues to move forward IMO climate framework remains politically dividedDiscussions on the IMO’s Net Zero Framework continued this week, but major divisions remain over how global shipping should decarbonise. While negotiations are progressing, disagreements over the structure and implementation of emissions measures continue to delay broader consensus. This ongoing uncertainty highlights the challenge of aligning global climate ambitions with competing economic and political priorities. Regional sustainability measures gain momentumDespite slower

Record VLGC rates, resilient tanker earnings and a 10% surge in PCTC charter rates signal continued strength across segments Tankers: Mixed moves across size classes as Hormuz closure keeps structural floor intactThe crude tanker market softened slightly week-on-week as limited visible cargo activity applied modest downward pressure throughout the segment, though the move reflects a normalisation from exceptional levels rather than any structural deterioration. Suezmax rates eased to approximately USD 124,000 per day while Aframax rates firmed to around USD

Structural market dislocation intensifies into week eight, with no clear path to normalisation Earnings hold firm as the strait remains effectively closedCrude tanker markets softened modestly week-on-week but remain at historically elevated levels across all segments, with 2026 year-to-date averages running at multiples of 2025 levels. The Strait of Hormuz is now in its eighth week of effective closure, with transits averaging around 10 per day versus roughly 125 pre-conflict and down 93% in tonnage terms. Brent has responded, trading